Peak Is Here.
Is Your Business Ready?

Peak season is not a surprise.

The dates are known. Historical sales data exists. Supplier shutdown periods can be confirmed. Shipping lead times can be assessed, and additional warehouse and transport capacity can be booked.

Yet every year, many businesses enter peak as though the increase in demand was impossible to anticipate.

Purchase orders become urgent. Suppliers place customers on allocation. Containers arrive late. Warehouses become congested. Premium freight and overtime costs increase, while operations teams move from one emergency to the next.

The real question is therefore not whether peak is coming.

Is your business ready for it?

Durban Is Already Providing a Warning

For South African businesses, this question has become more urgent.

Durban - the country's most important container gateway - is already experiencing significant operational pressure. During August, reported anchorage delays ranged from approximately 80 to 166 hours, while delays of between five and nine days persisted at Durban Container Terminal Pier 2.

Data for 23-29 August placed the median vessel waiting time at approximately 3.52 days. However, delays were not experienced uniformly. Some vessels reportedly waited around 10 days, while certain containers discharged as early as 11 August remained stranded at the port on 25 August.

The delays have been linked to terminal congestion, vessel bunching, landside constraints and implementation of the NAVIS operating system.

A shipment may complete most of its international journey on schedule and still fail to reach a South African factory when expected.

As peak volumes increase, existing congestion creates a clear warning: businesses cannot build their plans around standard transit times and assume that the port will absorb additional demand without disruption.

Peak Begins With an Increasingly Expensive Supply Chain

Port congestion is only one part of the exposure. South African businesses are approaching peak with elevated fuel, utility and production-input costs.

Brent crude increased from an average of $64.46 per barrel in January 2026 to $103.90 in May - an increase of approximately 61%. Although prices subsequently moderated, Brent remained around $96 per barrel in early September, nearly 49% above its January level.

The effect has already moved through South Africa's domestic supply chain. Diesel prices were 53.8% higher year on year in May and remained 50.8% higher in June.

Diesel is not simply a transport cost. It is used on farms, in mines, at manufacturing sites, in generators and throughout South Africa's road-based distribution network. Its cost can therefore enter the value chain several times before a finished product reaches the customer.

Imported and locally manufactured inputs are also under pressure. In July, producer prices for coke, petroleum, chemicals, rubber and plastic products were 15.7% higher than a year earlier. Electricity tariffs increased by 8.1% in 2026, while water tariffs rose by 10.2%.

Even when the purchase price remains unchanged, the cost of producing, storing and delivering a product may be substantially higher.

Stable Freight Does Not Mean Low Risk

China accounted for 23.7% of South Africa's merchandise imports in July. This creates significant exposure to Asian production, port and shipping disruption.

Indicative Shanghai-to-Durban freight rates softened by approximately 2.1% during August to around $3,753 per 40-foot container. At an exchange rate of approximately R15.97 to the dollar, this is nearly R60,000 before insurance, customs costs, port charges and inland transport.

The slight reduction in freight should be welcomed, but it should not create a false sense of security. A 10% movement in the freight rate would add approximately R6,000 to the cost of one container. Every R1 weakening in the rand against the dollar would add approximately R3,753.

More importantly, a competitive freight rate provides little protection if the container spends additional days waiting for a berth or cannot be evacuated from the terminal.

Is Your Forecast Credible?

Many businesses create one forecast and treat it as a commitment rather than an assumption. A stronger approach is to prepare at least three scenarios:

• A base case representing the most likely demand
• An upside case showing the effect of stronger-than-expected sales
• A downside case identifying the risk of excess stock

The business should then assess what each scenario means for raw materials, production capacity, warehouse space, transport requirements and working capital.

Historical forecast accuracy must also be considered. The objective is not to predict demand perfectly. It is to understand how the business will respond when actual demand differs from the forecast.

Have You Identified Your Critical Materials?

Not every product or material deserves the same level of protection.

A critical-material assessment should consider:

• Commercial importance and margin
• Supplier capacity and financial stability
• Country and port of origin
• Total replenishment lead time
• Exposure to Durban port congestion
• Availability of alternative suppliers or substitute materials
• Financial and operational consequences of a shortage

A high-margin product dependent on one imported component should not be managed in the same way as a locally available, low-value material with several approved suppliers.

Businesses should identify the materials that are both commercially important and difficult to replace. Those items should receive priority when inventory, capacity and management attention are allocated.

Have Your Suppliers Actually Confirmed Capacity?

A supplier saying peak demand “should be manageable” is not the same as confirmed capacity.

Critical suppliers should provide written confirmation covering available production capacity, maximum supply volumes, peak lead times, shutdown periods, upstream constraints, transport arrangements and contingency plans.

This conversation should extend beyond tier-one suppliers where possible. Your direct supplier may be confident, but that confidence provides limited protection if its own critical raw material comes from a single source.

Is Additional Inventory the Right Answer?

When risk increases, the instinctive response is often to buy more stock.

Additional inventory can protect availability, but it also consumes cash, occupies warehouse space and creates the possibility of excess or obsolete stock after peak.

Where is the commercial cost of running out greater than the financial cost of holding additional inventory?

Inventory should be positioned selectively around critical products, long lead-time materials and supply points where recovery would be difficult.

For imports moving through Durban, lead-time calculations should include a realistic congestion allowance. Planning against the shipping line's port-to-port transit time alone is no longer sufficient.

Does the Business Have One Integrated Plan?

Peak preparation often fails because every function produces its own plan.

Sales develops a forecast. Procurement contacts suppliers. Operations creates a production schedule. Logistics books transport. Finance attempts to control inventory and working capital.

Individually, each plan may appear reasonable. Collectively, they may be based on completely different assumptions.

A business cannot plan for higher sales while limiting inventory, delaying supplier commitments and reducing logistics capacity.

A credible peak plan must provide one integrated view of:

• Demand scenarios
• Critical materials and supplier constraints
• Inventory and working-capital requirements
• Port and shipping lead-time exposure
• Production, warehouse and transport capacity
• Freight, fuel and exchange-rate sensitivity
• Customer priorities
• Decision owners and escalation triggers

Are the Escalation Decisions Already Agreed?

Preparation is not only about planning what should happen. It is also about deciding what the business will do when the original plan no longer applies.

Leadership should agree the conditions that will trigger action: when to increase safety stock, activate an alternative supplier, revise production due to port delays, divert cargo, prioritise products or customers, or approve premium freight.

Without predetermined triggers and decision rights, the business loses valuable time debating its response while the disruption continues.

Preparation Preserves Options

South African companies cannot control global conflict, oil prices, currency volatility or congestion at the Port of Durban.

They can control how early they identify their exposure, how honestly they test their assumptions and how quickly they act when risk thresholds are reached.

The longer a company waits, the fewer options remain - and the more expensive those options become.

Emergency airfreight, overtime, spot purchases and production changes may protect customer service, but they often destroy the margin that peak demand was expected to generate.

Peak performance is built before peak begins.

The businesses that succeed will be those that understand their risks, prepare for more than one scenario and make clear decisions while they still have choices.